The Housing Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2024

Key Takeaways

• Homebuyers shouldn’t expect market conditions to improve too much in the second half of 2024, with mortgage rates likely to remain elevated and supplies tight.
• Economists expect home prices will rise by about 4%, and mortgage rates to remain at about 6.5%, in the second half.
• Despite strong demand for housing, high interest rates and poor economic conditions could limit new home construction.

Those who are waiting for relief in the housing market aren’t likely to see much improvement in the second half of 2024, forecasts show. Homebuyers have been dealing with an increasingly expensive housing market, as mortgage rates in the 7% range have made borrowing more difficult and fewer available houses on the market have made properties more expensive. Economists expect much of the same in the second half of 2024.

“The U.S. housing market is stuck, and we are not convinced it will become unstuck anytime soon,” Bank of America economists Michael Gapen and Jeseo Park wrote in a recent report.

Economists don’t see anything to limit the forces that have pressured home affordability following the pandemic-era boom. They predict home sales will remain limited and that the “lock-in effect” will likely continue with homeowners reluctant to move and give up favorable mortgage rates.

Supplies Likely to Remain Limited

The number of homes on the market is likely to remain small for the remainder of 2024, according to a Goldman Sachs forecast. Economists at Goldman expect existing home sales to drop to their lowest levels since the early 1990s.

Not only are high mortgage rates serving to lock in homeowners at their current spots, but an increasing number have either no mortgage or have low remaining balances, which also serves to keep people in place, the note said.

“We expect only modest progress toward solving the national housing shortage over the next year,” according to Goldman.

More single-family homes are expected to come on the market throughout the remainder of the year, but the boost will be modest, Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker wrote. At the same time, construction on multifamily units like apartments and condos is likely to dip lower this year.

High demand for housing, especially among millennials, should provide more incentives for new housing starts, but an economic downturn could keep new housing construction levels flat, the BofA economists said.

Housing Prices, Mortgage Rates Likely to Stay High

Limited housing supply is likely to drive prices up, economists said. Goldman Sachs forecast prices will likely be 3.9% higher this December than they were last year. In BofA’s view, home prices are likely to rise by about 4.5% in 2024, with prices staying elevated into next year.

The lock-in effect could hang on for another six to eight years, BofA economists said. They expect mortgage rates won’t come down significantly, giving few homeowners the incentive to leave their lower-rate mortgage and keeping inventory tight for homebuyers.

A gradual easing of mortgage rates is possible if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this year, said government-sponsored enterprise Freddie Mac. However, rates will likely remain above 6.5% through the rest of 2024, they predicted.

Overall, the outlook for the housing market in the second half of 2024 is one of continued challenges for homebuyers. With limited supply, high prices, and elevated mortgage rates expected to persist, those looking to purchase a home may face an uphill battle. It remains to be seen if any significant changes will occur to improve market conditions in the near future.

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