The Impact of Mother’s Day Spending on the Economy

Key Takeaways

• U.S. consumers are expected to spend $33.5 billion on Mother’s Day this year, slightly lower than last year’s record, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation.
• Average per-person spending is also forecast to be down slightly, to an anticipated $254.04 per person, with those aged 35 to 44 expected to spend the most at about $345.75 each.
• Strong Mother’s Day spending comes on the heels of several months of better-than-expected retail sales, which have helped to drive economic growth despite persistent inflation.

Consumers are expected to spend $33.5 billion this Mother’s Day, the second-highest figure since the National Retail Federation (NRF) has tracked spending data, despite persistent inflation and high interest rates. This marks a dip compared with total spending of $35.7 billion at this time last year but could still provide a crucial boost to the economy at a time when consumer sentiment more broadly is at a multi-month low.

The average per-person spending this Mother’s Day is expected to be $254.04 for those celebrating the holiday, down $20 from last year but up almost 30% compared with what it was five years ago. The NRF anticipates 84% of U.S. adults to celebrate Mother’s Day.

As in prior years, spending is not evenly distributed across age groups; those between 35 and 44 years old are forecast to spend the most, with an average of $345.75 per celebrant expected. The NRF anticipates that the most common purchases for Mother’s Day will include flowers, greeting cards, and special outings like dinner or brunch.

Consumer Spending Runs Hot, Despite Sentiment Concerns

A boost to retail sales for Mother’s Day could continue the trend of strong retail performance in recent months. In March, for example, food and retail goods sales rose at about twice the rate analysts anticipated. Strong sales trends fly in the face of headwinds including lingering high prices following a protracted period of inflation, and high borrowing costs that have strained budgets and have helped to buoy economic growth in recent months.

Still, the impacts of these headwinds can still be felt in consumer sentiment more broadly. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, updated on May 10, dropped to 67.4 for May after reaching 77.2 in April. Reasons for the dip in sentiment include lingering elevated prices, high interest rates, and employment concerns.

Consumer sentiment trends do not always match up with spending trends, as recent retail sales figures show. Nonetheless, retailers have begun to note a slow-down in spending in certain areas, particularly among lower-income customers, with big-name brands including Starbucks (SBUX) and McDonald’s (MCD) lowering full-year sales forecasts and announcing an increase in deals, respectively.

Consumer sentiment has faltered since the early days of the pandemic and has remained low through inflation and periods of global unrest in recent years. However, May’s consumer sentiment index reading is still roughly 14% higher than a year ago at this time.

Overall, despite concerns about consumer sentiment and economic headwinds such as inflation and high interest rates, Mother’s Day spending is expected to provide a much-needed boost to the economy. With consumers gearing up to spend billions on gifts and celebrations for their mothers, retailers can expect a surge in sales that could help drive economic growth in the coming months.

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